Re: area51

Message posted by JB737 on September 29, 2007 at 2:01:41 PST:

Most of what you say makes great sense, and I also love applying game theory to this problem, but my own take on it differs in two ways:

1. Yes, it is a shell game and chess from THEIR viewpoint, but it is a shell game and poker from OUR viewpoint. They have relatively complete information about about where the chesspieces are, and the meaning of their own moves. We on the outside don't. We are left guessing as to what cards they are holding, and depending on what we guess, their moves mean different things. Hence we never know much with certainty, which itself is one of their major objectives.

2. If "it has moved", then show me the parking lot! In the USA, "follow the cars" is as reliable as "follow the money" and easier to do. Lots of folks show up each weekday, park their extended cab pickups, hop on old 737s that disappears from public tracking in midair, and return each day unable to tell their families where they went or what they did, even if it was just to drive a bulldozer around a dirt pile.

Yes, it all could be an expensive bluff (deception only) or semi-bluff (accomplishing real work on second-tier projects, etc) that they repeat every day for deception value. But on average in poker, big bets by good players generally mean big hands that they expect to get paid off for. To continually bluff big when you expect to ALWAYS be called and lose (they aren't going to get a refund on salaries and JANET fuel), simply is not done EVER by a good player. So in my estimation, they are just "grinding out a win" with big bets every day, because they hold a very big hand every day.

We can't deduce WHICH very big hand they hold, as they have deep enough pockets to bet all the really big ones very strongly. So the debate over exactly what the biggest secrets are, will not easily be deduced. Only that they are big, likely the biggest secrets we have, and it is indeed the place those are most likely are worked on if physical isolation from observation by society is desired.

as in "Janet Boeing 737"

In Reply to: area51 posted by Stephen Wickens on September 28, 2007 at 17:34:22 PST:


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