Re: Navy EP-3 etc...


Message posted by Magoo on April 02, 2001 at 18:28:12 PST:

I feel that if there were any compromises to be made, these would have occurred by now in the 48 hours the aircraft has been on the ground. Even if photos of the interior of the aircraft were taken for a more thorough analysis by Chinese experts, that may be enough for them to be able to develop a counter to the equipment it carries, or offer details of it to the highest bidder.

We can be reasonably certain that any data the aircraft had collected, and any files relating to the methodology of doing so has been destroyed by the crew prior to the landing. So all that would be left is the hardware, which probably would have been compromised less than 30 minutes after landing.

I'm sure contingencies for such events are in place, but I fear the horse has probably long bolted. If the USN were going to destroy the aircraft by entering Chinese airspace and taking out a few bystanders in the process, innocent or otherwise, it could be seen as an escalation of the event, rather than putting an end to it. However, there is little doubt the precise location of the aircraft has been identified, and that there is probably an SSN sitting in the South China Sea with a couple of TLAMs pointed at Hainan Dao right now. It has been reported that there are three navy destroyers in the area also, but I am yet to see a report as to what class these may be.

I fear this may see a dramatic souring of relations between China and the US (and its allies) if not resolved quickly. Bush has already been seen to take a harder line on China than Clinton, and he will be anxious to prove his resolve on such matters. He may even vote for the additional weapons package for Taiwan (Aegis, Patriot, P-3Cs etc) that is currently in the balance, as a consequence of Chinas actions.

Although the US maintains a 'one China' policy, it also has a policy to defend Taiwan if attacked by China or anyone else, so this event may lead to greater political recognition of Taiwan, and thus on to more 'interesting' times.

Magoo


In Reply to: Re: Navy EP-3 etc... posted by Andre' M. Dall'au on April 02, 2001 at 17:01:51 PST:

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