Very Unlikely


Message posted by Griffon_314 on November 11, 2013 at 10:08:28 PST:

Very unlikely to be true, in my opinion, for a couple of reasons.

1) The laws of optics dictate that satellites capable of taking "very high" resolution images of the earth (i.e. GSD < 1m) *must* be very large themselves. Hence the massive size of the KH-series birds (and their Russian equivalents). The KH-9 Hexagon class birds for example were 60 feet long, and weighed over 30,000 lbs!

The KH-11 class is believed to use a three-mirror system with a 2.4-meter primary mirror in a f/8 focal configuration, so it is more compact, but still an absolutely huge satellite, easily seen with the naked eye when sunlit.

So any discussion of very small but very high-resolution satellites would seem dubious. The only thing a "very small" satellite would be able to take photos of with "high resolution" would be something close by (e.g. another satellite).

2) The absence of visual observation. Flares notwithstanding, satellites reflect sunlight, and thus can be (and are) imaged by amateur observers. While the US has experimented with visual stealth measures for low-earth satellites, virtually every payload put into low-earth orbit has eventually been detected and tracked. No one has reported observations that would line up with this allegation - including observers with very sophisticated CCD-based satellite tracking setups.

3) The absence of launches. The entire manifest of US space launches has been subjected to intense scrutiny - location, time, vehicle size/configuration, payload fairing size/shape, etc - so while it's conceivable that small satellites could be hidden as "piggyback" payloads (and indeed have been on occasion), that brings us back to a size of vehicle that wouldn't be capable of high-resolution imaging.

4) Logic. Simply put, the NSA doesn't operate classified satellite networks. The NRO does. While the NSA is a *customer* for data produced by the NRO (primarily data from geosynchronous SIGINT satellites, not IMINT platforms), it is unlikely that an NSA contractor would have access to details of a classified NRO program of this sort. The idea that an NSA contractor would have access to details on the size of the satellite, number of vehicles in the constellation, resolution, etc - just doesn't pass the smell test, IMO.

So if Snowden has indeed made this allegation (and I haven't found a reliable source to indicate that he has), I think it is very unlikely to be true.


In Reply to: Sauron Mini Spy Satellites? posted by uncleaina on November 08, 2013 at 13:25:32 PST:

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