Message posted by C. Reed on February 04, 2010 at 16:18:41 PST:
Frankly, I've never agreed with the rationale for basing such a system on a conventional Minuteman based at Vandenberg. A big reason why - you're never going to be able to conceal a launch. Say you're trying to take out a high-value target who knows its being targetted, and the time to reach it is a half hour. Within ten minutes of a launch, news services are going to have it - they won't know if its just a test launch or something more, but it will be noted - you can't disguise/suppress it. The opposition could well detail a small team just to watch the net/news channels, and then give a yell out on a satellite phone (that the target would never use to transmit, only to receive the "get out of Dodge" call) Say that process would take 10 minutes if they've got it right. How far could the target move in 5-10 minutes? Probably far enough, and then you've just wasted an intercontinental range range weapon on an empty target and probably put the Russians and Chinese on alert, regardless of the missile being launched from a "conventional only" facility. This is why I would guess it's a shorter-range aerospace vehicle or air-launched missile forward deployed. Maybe something you could drop out the back of a C-17; nice and nondescript that you could keep overseas without attracting too much attention. Or maybe a larger, longer-range ASALM-type ramjet missile. Maybe something more exotic. You wouldn't have the blistering speed of an ICBM, but you'd be closer in, without as large a risk of tipping the target off. You could also keep a launch aircraft aloft if you had a situation developing where a shot opportunity might develop. In any case, I'd bet that the real delay in hitting a time sensitive target will always be getting the information up the change of command and then getting political permission. I can't see much of an ICBM-based system being tested at Groom, but a more air vehicle oriented approach might indeed account for the increased acitivity. Just my 2 cents worth, and probably not worth even that... Chris
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