Re: Missile Defence Shield


Message posted by Magoo on August 24, 2001 at 3:00:54 PST:

Please keep in mind I am not against the national missile defence shield, or NMD, nor do I have any right to be against it. However, there are a few points to consider...

* The average age of the USAF fighter fleet is now about 15 years, and whilst the future of the F-22 program looks brighter each day, it's still not totally safe yet. The build number of F-22s now looks like being less than 300 (to replace 600+ F-15s) unless substantial savings on the US$150 million per unit cost can be found.
* There are defence analysts and lobbyists seriously proposing upgrading the 'current' F-15C/D and F-16C fleets to serve until 2020+ to fill the gap left by the reduced F-22 build. The B-52 looks like being around till 2030, 75 years after entering service!!!
* Most analysts agree that the JSF is still a 50/50 proposition. The USN fleet averages 17+ years, and the JSF isn't due to go to sea in strength for another eight to ten years. Total F/A-18E build numbers keep being reduced, and it is not a quantum capability leap over current aircraft - it just does 33% more of everything basically.
* A third of the B-1 fleet is probably going to be mothballed at AMARC in order to keep the other 60 aircraft operational.
* Many analysts have made it quite clear that US defence spending will have to increase from 2.9% to 4.2% of GDP just to maintain current capabilities in the next two decades, and this does not take into account one cent for the missile defence shield. That's an additional US$25 billion dollars a year!
* It is thought the NMD will probably cost at least US$150 billion to construct!
* I think what has never been seriously said by any politician is that the NMD is probably aimed squarely at China, and not at the 'rogue states' that have been talked about. China has only about 15-20 ICBMs, and an operational NMD would probably be able to handle that number if used in anger. However, it would be relatively easy for China to build a few more 'Long March' missiles and fit them with multiple or dummy warheads, and instantly the NMD could be rendered pretty much obsolete.

In the long run, the real threat to any open nation's security really comes from within, and I don't necessarily mean from its own citizens, although there are probably a few more Timothy McVeighs out there! How easy would it be to drive your typical Dodge or Ford minivan (with the option box for the 10 kiloton nuclear weapon in the back ticked) and leave it parked on Wall Street, or Pennsylvania Avenue for an hour or two. THAT'S where the real threats lies my friends.

Like I said, we live in interesting times!

Magoo (looking in from the outside)


In Reply to: Re: Missile Defence Shield posted by gary on August 24, 2001 at 1:54:22 PST:

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